Potential's Nemesis, the Four-Year Player

Over the past decade or so, it seems like far more players have been drafted higher on "potential" than in decades prior. This is certainly due, in part, to the evolution of advanced stats, projections, and a number of other scouting factors that, in all honesty, exceed my basketball knowledge in many cases. And it definitely works out in a lot of cases. Most of the top players in the NBA were either one-and-done guys or drafted as teenagers. But I look at players like Jalen Brunson (33rd pick), Collin Gillespie (undrafted), Tyler Kolek (34th pick), and Austin Reaves (undrafted), all of whom played four years in college and currently play crucial roles for their teams, some more than others, and I wonder why teams were so comfortable overlooking them. Obviously, if you're in a position to take a very talented prospect in the top 10, you're going to take that player, but drafting a highly unproven prospect in the late first round over an established player, primarily because he's older, doesn't make sense to me, and I didn't always carry that same belief.

There's a 6'8"+ wing prospect with a lean build in every draft class now who teams draft because they believe he'll be the next Kevin Durant, which is a little bit insane to me. The reality is that there's only one Kevin Durant, there only has been since he's entered the league, and you're probably not going to find the next one at the end of the first round of the NBA draft. I could use this same argument for countless other player archetypes. Top prospects unfairly get compared to bonafide superstars of previous eras, leading to unfair expectations and impatience from organizations when a teenager takes a couple of seasons to figure it out, but that's a conversation for another day.

I'm no scout, but I'd love to see some teams consider proven players if they're drafting past the lottery. They get neglected for their age far too often. Sure, their playstyles may not always translate, and there are probably several instances where this argument can be proven wrong, but having a guy with more years of playing experience might really be able to help good teams, who commonly make their initial draft picks at the end of the first round (unless you're the Oklahoma City Thunder), solidify their bench units.